| ©ICIS HEREN - Nuclear key to extending Romanian supply margins � TSO |
| 2010-04-06 |
| Romanian transmission system operator (TSO) Transelectrica forecasts comfortable supply margins going forward to 2018, despite growing demand. The TSO predicted a 30% increase in installed capacity out to 2013, although demand could increase by as much as 44%. However, extra nuclear capacity will ensure margins ease out to 2018. Last year, there was a supply margin of around 1.6GW at peak power demand in Romania. But this surplus is reduced out to 2013, after which it increases to 5.0GW by 2018. Expectations of a tightening medium-term supply surplus had previously led to initiatives to rehabilitate existing capacity. At the end of 2007, Romania had an installed capacity of 20.4GW, but this is forecast to increase by 6.2GW by 2013. Just over 40% (2.55GW) of this rise was expected to come from rehabilitated capacity, with the majority (3.65GW) attributed to new capacity. Almost half of this new-capacity growth comes from oil and gas-fired plants at 1,527MW, with 943MW from wind, 800MW from coal and 340MW from hydropower. Of the rehabilitated plants, lignite units account for 1,650MW alone, while revamped coal-fired plant adds 695MW, and hydropower accounts for 210MW. From 2014-2018, another 5.1GW of generation capacity is expected on line. The forecast completion of the Cernavoda units 3 and 4 nuclear reactors will contribute 1,413MW. Transelectrica forecasts national demand growing by 3.2%/year between 2008 and 2017. Under its maximum consumption scenario, it predicts net production of 70.0TWh by 2013, up from 56.5TWh last year, and 81.3TWh by 2018. Romania’s gross domestic consumption remains below these levels – from 54.3TWh last year to 67.0TWh by 2013 and 78.3TWh by 2018. (THE ICIS HEREN REPORTS - EDEM 13 199 / 14 October 2009) |
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